I have somewhat hastily put down a few general points on how the post- Covid19 scenario is likely to play out in the immediate and long-run around the world. I submit them below for your scrutiny and review.
1) Both state governments and private players will seek to enhance their capabilities in the fields of digital surveillance and security systems. There will be a marketing blitz claiming that surveillance apps played a major role in controlling the coronavirus pandemic and that this represents the future of healthcare. The military-industrial-digital complex will aggressively seek an opportunity for themselves in this crisis by installing themselves in healthcare systems around the world.
2) Neoliberalism as an ideology will face increased criticism and cynicism. Keynesian ideas will make a temporary comeback. It is more likely that many state governments including India will opt for a compromise between neoliberal and Keynesian approaches in their efforts to restart the economy, rather than altogether move away from the unsustainable growth model we currently follow. Global capital will seek a safe haven in India, besides other countries. In the coming days, it will be clear if our political leadership has enough foresight to not bite the bait that will come in the form of promised investment and new jobs. There will also be a temptation to print more money and pump it into the economy, but this will only further uproot the money economy from the natural economy of energy and matter.
3) Oil is still the most crucial commodity in the industrial system. But oil prices have tanked and demand is not likely to rise in the short-term. This may precipitate realignments in geopolitics, which we have to carefully observe.
4) The 21st century will most likely be a century of recurrent crises, relative scarcity, and economic contraction. The only long-term solution is to permanently step off the economic model that seeks to deliver greater prosperity for a few through the exploitation of natural ecosystems and the laboring masses. Countries must make use of the ongoing disruption to redesign their economies and make them resilient enough to weather future storms. For example, governments should not attempt to generate employment opportunities for the poor by investing in big-ticket infrastructure projects like airports and highways that cater to the needs of global capital. Rather, the most crucial infrastructure that needs to be build-up for the coming phase of economic contraction is a robust public health system. The test of resilience has to be applied at the most local levels.
5) Finally, economic resilience alone will not be sufficient for countries to emerge successfully out of the current and future crises. Social trust is fundamental to any effort at salvage and recovery. Societies lacking in such trust will respond to a crisis by scapegoating and fighting amongst each other, as seems to be the case in India. We must be vigilant as politicians will certainly seek to add further fuel to these flames.
1) Both state governments and private players will seek to enhance their capabilities in the fields of digital surveillance and security systems. There will be a marketing blitz claiming that surveillance apps played a major role in controlling the coronavirus pandemic and that this represents the future of healthcare. The military-industrial-digital complex will aggressively seek an opportunity for themselves in this crisis by installing themselves in healthcare systems around the world.
2) Neoliberalism as an ideology will face increased criticism and cynicism. Keynesian ideas will make a temporary comeback. It is more likely that many state governments including India will opt for a compromise between neoliberal and Keynesian approaches in their efforts to restart the economy, rather than altogether move away from the unsustainable growth model we currently follow. Global capital will seek a safe haven in India, besides other countries. In the coming days, it will be clear if our political leadership has enough foresight to not bite the bait that will come in the form of promised investment and new jobs. There will also be a temptation to print more money and pump it into the economy, but this will only further uproot the money economy from the natural economy of energy and matter.
3) Oil is still the most crucial commodity in the industrial system. But oil prices have tanked and demand is not likely to rise in the short-term. This may precipitate realignments in geopolitics, which we have to carefully observe.
4) The 21st century will most likely be a century of recurrent crises, relative scarcity, and economic contraction. The only long-term solution is to permanently step off the economic model that seeks to deliver greater prosperity for a few through the exploitation of natural ecosystems and the laboring masses. Countries must make use of the ongoing disruption to redesign their economies and make them resilient enough to weather future storms. For example, governments should not attempt to generate employment opportunities for the poor by investing in big-ticket infrastructure projects like airports and highways that cater to the needs of global capital. Rather, the most crucial infrastructure that needs to be build-up for the coming phase of economic contraction is a robust public health system. The test of resilience has to be applied at the most local levels.
5) Finally, economic resilience alone will not be sufficient for countries to emerge successfully out of the current and future crises. Social trust is fundamental to any effort at salvage and recovery. Societies lacking in such trust will respond to a crisis by scapegoating and fighting amongst each other, as seems to be the case in India. We must be vigilant as politicians will certainly seek to add further fuel to these flames.
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